A Framework for Improving Analysis and Modeling of Earth System and Intersectoral Dynamics at Regional Scales

Paul Ullrich, University of California, Davis (Principal Investigator)

Melissa Bukovsky, National Center for Atmospheric Research  (Co-Principal Investigator)

Naresh Devineni, City University of New York (Co-Investigator)

William Gutowski, Iowa State University (Co-Principal Investigator)

Alex Hall, University of California, Los Angeles (Co-Principal Investigator)

Andrew Jones, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Co-Principal Investigator)

Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Co-Principal Investigator)

Sara Pryor, Cornell University (Co-Principal Investigator)

Kevin Reed, Stony Brook University (Co-Principal Investigator)

Chaopeng Shen, Pennsylvania State University (Co-Principal Investigator)

Colin Zarzycki, Pennsylvania State University (Co-Principal Investigator)

Rebecca Barthelmie, Cornell University (Co-Investigator)

Xiaodong Chen, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Utah State University (Co-Investigator)

Jiwen Fan, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Zhe Feng, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Donovan Finn, Stony Brook University (Co-Investigator)

Naomi Goldenson, University of California, Los Angeles (Co-Investigator)

Richard Grotjahn, University of California, Davis (Co-Investigator)

Kripa Jagannathan, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Rachel McCrary, National Center for Atmospheric Research (Co-Investigator)

Seth McGinnis, National Center for Atmospheric Research (Co-Investigator)

Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research (Co-Investigator)

Yun Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Stefan Rahimi-Esfarjani, University of California, Los Angeles (Co-Investigator)

Alan Rhoades, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Abhishekh Srivastava, Pennsylvania State University (Co-Investigator)

Sally Wang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Co-Investigator)

Shih-Yu Simon Wang, Utah State University (Co-Investigator)

David Yates, National Center for Atmospheric Research (Co-Investigator)

Actionable climate science relies on effective communication of regional climate information and its associated uncertainties. Given the vital role that climate models play in enabling future climate projections that can be used for planning and decision-making across sectors, it is essential to build trust in these models and associated data products. To this end, this project, “A Framework for Improving Analysis and Modeling of Earth System and Intersectoral Dynamics at Regional Scales”, also known as HyperFACETS, has been working within the conterminous United States (CONUS) to fundamentally investigate credibility and salience of climate information, as encapsulated by our two framing questions:

• How much can we trust given climate information for actionable climate science?

• How can we ensure that climate information is salient for stakeholders and other end-users?

Our study of climate data credibility and salience naturally lends to a need to understand relevant processes that operate within the coupled human-Earth system, so that we can develop tools and methods for evaluating models and datasets and ensure they are consistent with the real world. If we are to have confidence in future projections from climate modeling systems, it is essential that they are able to both correctly capture historical conditions and correctly represent the underlying processes responsible for those conditions and their changes.

The coupled human-Earth system is a complex and interconnected web of components, processes and fields spanning a wide range of time and space scales. Our work focuses primarily on the atmosphere-water-energy-land system, which includes: dynamic and thermodynamic processes and corresponding atmospheric circulations; precipitation, evaporation, and water availability; energy use, production and associated infrastructure; and land-use and land-cover (including urban environments). Within this system, our goals are as follows:

1. To advance our understanding of processes at the atmosphere-water-energy-land interface.

2. Fundamentally understand and evaluate our ability to perform credible climate modeling of particular regions and their associated processes, especially in the extreme.

3. Strengthen stakeholder engagement in model development, evaluation and application. Engage effectively in co-production: Together advancing the science and meeting real needs.