Public Abstract

DE-SC0025454: Role of Atlantification and Pacification in shaping regional freshwater and heat budgets of the Arctic Ocean from observations and modeling

Award Status: Active

Institution: University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
UEI: FDLEQSJ8FF63
DUNS: 615245164

Most Recent Award Date: 09/24/2024
Number of Support Periods: 1
PM: Joseph, Renu

Current Budget Period: 09/01/2024 - 08/31/2025
Current Project Period: 09/01/2024 - 08/31/2028
PI: Polyakov, Igor

Supplement Budget Period: N/A

Public Abstract

ROLE OF ATLANTIFICATION AND PACIFICATION IN SHAPING REGIONAL FRESHWATER AND HEAT BUDGETS OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN FROM OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING I. POLYAKOV, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS (PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR) A. PNYUSHKOV, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS (CO-INVESTIGATOR) T. BALLINGER, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS (CO-INVESTIGATOR) Climate change drives the fundamental reconstruction of the Arctic climate system making it more dynamic and strongly integrated into the global climate system. One manifestation of these changes is increasingly strong Borealization of the Arctic Ocean associated with the advection of anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- (known as Atlantification) and Pacific-origin (known as Pacification) inflows into the polar basins contributed to regional sea-ice decline. The rising significance of oceanic heat in shaping Arctic sea ice is indicated by numerous ice-free areas during the fall ice formation season in the Siberian Arctic Ocean, whereas only 15 years ago this region was covered by compact sea ice. Rapid climate changes in the Arctic necessitate a rapid response since warmer-than-normal waters in the Nordic Seas and Bering Sea, upstream of the Arctic Ocean gateways, promote further eastward Borealization of the polar basins. Our interdisciplinary team and research objectives are well-positioned to address these abrupt changes. The goal of the proposed study is to quantify and understand the role of Arctic Borealization in forming regional freshwater and heat budgets under the new realities of climate change. We plan to use a synergistic combination of modeling and observational approaches to accomplish this. As a result, we will be able to document, quantify, and understand the long-term, broad-scale evolution of regional and pan-Arctic climate system. The proposed objectives are broad in scope. Extensive measurements from the ocean interior and at major oceanic gateways will constrain model-based estimates of heat and freshwater horizontal and vertical transports. A suite of advanced climate model simulations will be used to capture and interpret changes in the freshwater and heat budgets of the Arctic Ocean. Particularly, we propose to quantify the relative role of Atlantification and Pacification to the emerging spatiotemporal patterns of oceanic and sea-ice changes, heat and freshwater budgets of the Arctic Ocean and its basins, following alternating atmospheric regimes for the pre-industrial (control) and historical (1950–2014) simulations. Thus, we will assess the extent to which natural variability and climate change have influenced the Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean and its major regions. We also intend to assess the extent to which Borealization has altered the predictability of Arctic sea ice as well as the role of short (less that season) episodes in shaping large-scale, long-term climate variations. As a result, the project will provide crucial information about the anticipated shift of the freshwater and heat budgets of the Arctic Ocean to a new state, which may enhance ongoing sea ice declines. The success of the project will be driven by the UAF and LANL teams working together in a synergistic manner. Years of accumulated PIs experience ensure our ability to achieve these goals. The proposed synthesis of observations and modeling, which unifies efforts of the UAF and LANL researchers, will inform the scientific community and broader public about major changes in the Arctic Ocean and beyond, as well as their potential impacts on the state of the ice cover. Quantifying heat and freshwater changes has direct implications for the release of oceanic heat toward the sea ice; thus, the proposed observations are vital for developing a reliable early-warning (winter) indicator of the next summer sea-ice state which has great societal relevance providing a basis for decision making. The project will involve a substantial college-level educational component; its results will be disseminated via social science bodies and mass media. This collaborative project is directly relevant to DOE, namely the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) area within the Earth and Environmental Systems Program. It aligns with RGMA goals to “enhance…process- and system-level understanding of the modes of variability and change within the earth system by advancing capabilities to design, evaluate, diagnose, and analyze global and regional earth system model (ESM) simulations informed by observations.” Specifically, our project aligns with the High-Latitude Processes and Feedbacks thrust of RGMA that “aims at a better understanding of the processes driving rapid system change at high latitudes.”

ROLE OF ATLANTIFICATION AND PACIFICATION IN SHAPING REGIONAL FRESHWATER AND HEAT BUDGETS OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN FROM OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING
I. POLYAKOV, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS (PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR)
A. PNYUSHKOV, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS (CO-INVESTIGATOR)
T. BALLINGER, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS (CO-INVESTIGATOR)

Climate change drives the fundamental reconstruction of the Arctic climate system making it more dynamic and strongly integrated into the global climate system. One manifestation of these changes is increasingly strong Borealization of the Arctic Ocean associated with the advection of anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- (known as Atlantification) and Pacific-origin (known as Pacification) inflows into the polar basins contributed to regional sea-ice decline. The rising significance of oceanic heat in shaping Arctic sea ice is indicated by numerous ice-free areas during the fall ice formation season in the Siberian Arctic Ocean, whereas only 15 years ago this region was covered by compact sea ice. Rapid climate changes in the Arctic necessitate a rapid response since warmer-than-normal waters in the Nordic Seas and Bering Sea, upstream of the Arctic Ocean gateways, promote further eastward Borealization of the polar basins. Our interdisciplinary team and research objectives are well-positioned to address these abrupt changes.

The goal of the proposed study is to quantify and understand the role of Arctic Borealization in forming regional freshwater and heat budgets under the new realities of climate change. We plan to use a synergistic combination of modeling and observational approaches to accomplish this. As a result, we will be able to document, quantify, and understand the long-term, broad-scale evolution of regional and pan-Arctic climate system. The proposed objectives are broad in scope. Extensive measurements from the ocean interior and at major oceanic gateways will constrain model-based estimates of heat and freshwater horizontal and vertical transports. A suite of advanced climate model simulations will be used to capture and interpret changes in the freshwater and heat budgets of the Arctic Ocean. Particularly, we propose to quantify the relative role of Atlantification and Pacification to the emerging spatiotemporal patterns of oceanic and sea-ice changes, heat and freshwater budgets of the Arctic Ocean and its basins, following alternating atmospheric regimes for the pre-industrial (control) and historical (1950–2014) simulations. Thus, we will assess the extent to which natural variability and climate change have influenced the Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean and its major regions. We also intend to assess the extent to which Borealization has altered the predictability of Arctic sea ice as well as the role of short (less that season) episodes in shaping large-scale, long-term climate variations. As a result, the project will provide crucial information about the anticipated shift of the freshwater and heat budgets of the Arctic Ocean to a new state, which may enhance ongoing sea ice declines. The success of the project will be driven by the UAF and LANL teams working together in a synergistic manner. Years of accumulated PIs experience ensure our ability to achieve these goals.

The proposed synthesis of observations and modeling, which unifies efforts of the UAF and LANL researchers, will inform the scientific community and broader public about major changes in the Arctic Ocean and beyond, as well as their potential impacts on the state of the ice cover. Quantifying heat and freshwater changes has direct implications for the release of oceanic heat toward the sea ice; thus, the proposed observations are vital for developing a reliable early-warning (winter) indicator of the next summer sea-ice state which has great societal relevance providing a basis for decision making. The project will involve a substantial college-level educational component; its results will be disseminated via social science bodies and mass media.

This collaborative project is directly relevant to DOE, namely the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) area within the Earth and Environmental Systems Program. It aligns with RGMA goals to “enhance…process- and system-level understanding of the modes of variability and change within the earth system by advancing capabilities to design, evaluate, diagnose, and analyze global and regional earth system model (ESM) simulations informed by observations.” Specifically, our project aligns with the High-Latitude Processes and Feedbacks thrust of RGMA that “aims at a better understanding of the processes driving rapid system change at high latitudes.”